Is the Cherries season turning sour?

AFC Bournemouth have got just 5 points out of a potential 15 from their last 5 games, a far cry from their 15-game unbeaten streak earlier this season.

For a team who are certainly not in a bad position, it may sound strange to question performances. 8 points above a third placed West Brom and 1 point behind first placed Fulham; Scott Parkers side are in a great standing. However, with 26 games still to play, anything can happen. 

The Cherries don’t have an issue putting the ball in the back of the net. In their aforementioned past 5 games, they’ve netted 10 goals (an average of 2 a game). Yet they have also conceded 8 in that time, which matches the amount the team conceded in their first 15 fixtures of the season, prior to the Preston loss. 

Despite recent results, from a statistical perspective not much has changed in the goalscoring department. A rating can be given to every shot a player takes in a game. This can range from 0-1, with a higher rating given to shots taken in good positions with a higher likelihood of going in.

In AFC Bournemouth’s last 5 games, they have only been expected to score 7.25 goals, meaning they are almost 3 goals ahead of expectation. This matches the kind of attacking from they had in the first 15 games of the season, where they scored 26 goals from 22.98 expected goals per game. There is evidently no change in Bournemouth’s attacking prowess, as they continue to score goals.

Using defensive stats however, you can see where problems arise. Per game for the Cherries first 15, they were expected to concede 1.04 goals, but only conceded 0.53. This is very unusual, and means they managed to keep out almost twice as many goals as expected. This shows in part how the Cherries have been lucky in regard to opposition missing statistically higher chances, yet also shows the impact of the defensive partnership of captain Lloyd Kelly and Gary Cahill.

Within the past 5, their expected goals conceded has gone down slightly to 0.97 goals per game, yet they have allowed 1.6 per game, meaning many shots have gone in that statistically are much less likely to find the back of the net showing how unlucky the side have been.

Identifying problems before they spiral out of control is all a part of football, and this may just be the beginning of one. 

Parkers side have also been plagued with injuries in the recent weeks. Following the 2-2 draw against the Sky Blues, Parker recounted how they’re “down to the bare numbers” and said: “we’ve got a room full of injured players, that have done brilliant for us for large parts of the season.”

A tactical change for Saturday’s fixture saw Lerma drop to a back 3 alongside Steve Cook and Mepham, giving Cook his first league start of the season. Philip Billing also returned to the side following his absence from suspension in the 1-1 draw against Millwall and made a resounding impact in his usual number 10 role. 

For the first 68 minutes, the home team looked rather comfortable. Jefferson Lerma covering captain Lloyd Kelly’s normal defensive position gave them the much-needed pace for recovery runs and kept Mark Travers with not a whole lot of work. Following Lerma’s sending off, the team still seemed in control for the first few minutes, attacking heavily and moving the ball well. 

Inevitably Coventry started gaining confidence, and perhaps without the expansive experience of Cahill in the back line, the Cherries would not gain a foothold for the rest of the game, spending it in their own half.

With the Cherries next fixture being a top of the table clash against Fulham, it could prove to be a very important game. A win for the Cherries could help them get past their recent results and give some much-needed defensive confidence in regard to holding leads. A loss, however, could further feed into their problems.

While there’s no major cause for concern due to Bournemouth’s impressive start to the season, doubts are beginning to creep in about how the rest of the season will play out.